Final 2020 election predictions

The Trafalgar Group was the most accurate polling firm of 2016. They were nearly alone in predicting that Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania. This map relied heavily on their polls. They are especially good at accounting for what they call the “social-desirability bias.” Someone might be thinking that Trump is not shy, and many of his supporters are not either. That person would be right about that. However, it is also undeniable by any objective person that a cultural stigma has developed over the last four years from being a Trump supporter. People are ostracized, fired from their jobs, even told that they could not see their grandchildren unless they renounce their Trump support. As such, according to a national study by the Cato Institute earlier this year, 77% of Republicans said they had political opinions they were afraid to share. The same survey found that 50% of strong liberals favored firing Trump donors. So where most polling firms missed the Trump voters hiding in plain sight, the Trafalgar Group did not. They duplicated their success in the 2018 midterm elections. They went against the tide in predicting Ron DeSantis would become Governor, and Rick Scott would become Senator.

So when they apply their methods by showing their most recent polls of battleground states, the above map shows the results. The state that inspires the least amount of confidence is Pennsylvania because of all the legal challenges that will likely occur, making Pennsylvania 2020 the equivalent of Florida 2000. Although the Trafalgar poll gives North Carolina to Trump, there should be a concern that the rest of the state is less than conservative than this metropolitan area. According to the Trafalgar poll, 3.3% of the vote in Minnesota will go to Kanye West. If all 3.3% of that went to Trump, he would beat Biden by 0.1%. It is not surprising that the only state that voted against Reagan in 1984, for Jesse Ventura as Governor in 1998, and Al Franken for Senate in 2008 would cost Trump their ten electoral votes by enough of them voting for Kanye West. That would be a very Minnesota thing to do. Nevertheless, no one should be surprised if the polls are off again as the electoral college is concerned, giving Trump a second term. The final prediction here is Trump winning 295–243. There should also be no surprise if the Democrats keep the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate goes to a 50–50 split with Vice President Pence (assuming Trump wins) being the tie-breaking vote.